A Real-Life Example: How to Prepare for a Potential Civil War

America stands more divided than ever before. Recent polls show that 34% of Americans think a civil war is "likely," and 13% believe it’s "very likely." The surge in luxury bunker sales, with many buyers citing fears of "civil unrest," adds fuel to the fire. Could we really be headed toward another civil war? If so, how can we brace for it?

When Societies Break Apart

A close look at survivors of civil wars, coups, and civil unrest worldwide reveals a troubling pattern: societies fracture along lines of politics, ethnicity, religion, race, or class. This division often pits the majority against the minority, with the latter suffering the most. People tend to group together, avoiding interactions with the opposing factions. Those trapped in areas controlled by hostile groups must act swiftly to reach safe zones before checkpoints are established.

Failing to relocate before these checkpoints go up often leads to dire consequences. The only remaining option for survival might be to find someone sympathetic to your cause who can hide you or help you escape to safer territory. Escape from an occupied city, however, is rarely easy. It usually requires traveling on foot, through rough terrain, with nothing but the essentials.

Ivory Coast: A Real-Life Example

Take the example of Ivory Coast, which has seen two brutal civil wars. The first began in 2002, and the second, fought over disputed election results, occurred in 2010-2011. Thousands lost their lives, and around 750,000 civilians were displaced. One family I spoke to, originally from Ivory Coast, shared their story of survival. During the conflict, they sheltered 30 people in their home—an experience that profoundly affected their lives.

The wife recalled how, unable to leave their home due to the violence, she gained weight because they had an abundance of food, thanks to their mango plantation and their family's large livestock farm. Unlike many Americans, who no longer have access to such self-sufficient resources, this family’s farm was a lifeline, providing for their survival and allowing them to help others.

Civil War I vs. Civil War II

If we compare our previous civil war, which resulted in the loss of 2.5% of the U.S. population—around 750,000 people—with a potential future conflict, the numbers become staggering. If Civil War II were to have the same death toll proportion, the U.S. could lose as many as 7 million people. This would be like losing the entire population of Arizona. However, given the urbanization of the country, the proliferation of weapons, and the radical political climate, the actual death toll could be far higher.

In recent years, we've seen a dangerous shift in political discourse. While families once gathered around the dinner table without the threat of ideological division, now, liberal relatives openly disown family members they suspect may be conservative. The rhetoric has escalated to the point of calling for the death of conservative politicians and even attempts on their lives. An assassination attempt on former President Trump in 2024 has underscored how close we are to the breaking point. It’s hard to fathom how far we’ve fallen from the norms of civility, but history and human nature show us that this kind of violence often follows radicalized speech.

Preparing for the Worst

Predicting when or if Civil War II will happen is impossible. Human history is filled with failed attempts at foresight. Still, it’s wise to stay ready for any eventuality. Surviving such chaos doesn’t just involve taking action, but also knowing when not to act. Preparation is key, but survival is also about avoiding mistakes.

Readiness and Antifragility: The Key to Survival

We can’t predict the future, but we can adopt a state of readiness, or "antifragility." This means preparing for disruptions by identifying and strengthening our vulnerabilities. In a civil war, some may feel compelled to fight for their side, while others will need to decide whether to stay put or flee. Both options can be viable depending on the situation.

Sheltering in Place vs. Bugging Out: Making the Right Choice

In any conflict, your survival depends on your ability to adapt. The primary choices are simple: shelter in place or bug out. Both strategies require preparation, but which one is right for you depends on the circumstances. When society fractures, you will either find yourself in the majority or the minority. In either case, getting to a safe area controlled by people you trust is vital.

If you live in a region where you’re already in the minority, it may be wise to relocate before things get worse. Moving now is much easier than trying to do so when the situation deteriorates. In the past, emergency planners in Phoenix, Arizona, realized that there was no viable evacuation plan for the millions of people who live in the area. The city’s infrastructure is stretched beyond capacity, and a breakdown in order could lead to chaos. I took this reality to heart and moved to a more stable community in the Intermountain West, hoping to avoid the worst should the situation deteriorate.

Bugging Out: The Right Way

Being prepared to bug out involves more than just packing a bag. You need a plan. It’s critical to have a destination in mind and multiple routes to take if necessary. Your destination should be specific—“I’m going to the mountains” is not enough. In wartime, you might not be able to predict which direction will be safe, so having several possible escape routes is essential.

For most people, going to a retreat property or a family member's home is the best option. This is especially true if you’ve discussed plans beforehand. If you don’t have family or friends to go to, your best option may be to become a refugee. This is a worst-case scenario, and one you should avoid if possible.

Shelter in Place: A Last Resort

In some cases, staying put may be your safest option. Sheltering in place requires stockpiling food, water, and supplies so that you can avoid attracting attention. The goal is to stay hidden and make sure no one has a reason to enter your home. In times of extreme conflict, this strategy could make the difference between life and death.

Whether you shelter in place or bug out, preparation is key. Understand the risks, plan ahead, and be ready to adapt when the situation demands it. Surviving civil unrest requires not just physical readiness, but a mental and emotional ability to adapt to whatever comes your way.